near the unchanged level on this veterans day. a big salute and a thank you to all of our veterans in this country. that will do it for "closing bell." follow me on twitter and google plus. "fast money" begins right now. stocks clinging to hope that the fiscal cliff can be avoided. >> did i hear some dumb talk over the weekend about going over the fiscal cliff. let them go over the fiscal cliff. the deal is within reach. >> and not even america's favorite stock is immune. >> why are you buying apple here? >> it was overpriced at 536. >> there is one man you can always count on. >> big pop for "sky fall." the newest installment knocked them dead at the box office over the weekend and sold tickets. >> to help us find fast money special guest is in town. let's get to it.

"fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site i am melissa lee. here are the top three trades. the s&p 500 is close behind. should you be buying this dip? what some of the biggest hedgefund dealers are doing to make money. black friday is so yesterday. how retailers are trying to cash in and how you should be trading it right now. we have to get straight to america's most valuable company and that is apple shares falling yet again today. it is not just cnbc taking notice. michael wolf asks whether the age of apple is ending? is this the ultimate contrarien indicator. he says the tip is knowing that

a dominant is tracking before the oedipus falls. >> in other words in someone's portfolio rather than their business. this is one of the most crowded strads that we have seen. it's not a valuation call. it's not a growth call. these things are still there. this is a case where the dominance in terms of the playing field and what they do it is never going to be more at peak than where it is right now. from a hardware perspective there are people doing what they are doing for less money in the places where they need to grow which is asia which is supposed to be 40%. i don't see that happening as long as samsung, htc and others have a comparable product. >> they have made enormous in roads when it comes to market share in a short amount of time. so if you take a look.

31.3% for samsung. 15% for apple. these are gains year on year. because just a year ago samsung was a 22.7% and apple was at 13.8%. samsung growing at a bigger clip. the tablet wars samsung is at 18.4% and a year ago it was at 6.5%. the trajectory at which samsung is growing share, it can go head to head in terms of attention of the consumer. that is the concern here. are you concerned at all? >> i am concerned but i think there are two things going on. there is apple as stock and what that means in all of the sentiment involved with that and then apple the underlying business, the ecosystem they are building.

and those are two very different things right now. at the end of the day i will be marked on where the apple stock is trading. so that -- >> as a stock this is a stock that has kind of gotten a little tired. that was a crowded trade, a place where no one had room to go. >> to say it was the end of the apple age is like saying general motors was at the end. gm was a growth stock. to think that gm was going to disappear anytime soon after 1945 was ludicrous. >> i think people are saying you should be careful because it looks like the stock may be in jeopardy given the declines that we have seen since the end of september. we are down more than 20%. at the same time this coincides with the losses. >> i think we are going to see very big numbers. >> are you buying?

>> i'm not at the moment. i think we will see very big earnings which i think the stock won't deliver. >> the attention has to be eyebrow raising. it is not just the "usa today" article. >> with all due respect to "usa today," i don't want to offend anybody out there, but the fact it is on "usa today" is a subject of an in-depth report last week. it makes you wonder now that everybody has caught on maybe now is actually the time to buy the stock. i'm sure you have seen these sorts of occurrences in your long history. >> when you get to the newspapers that is probably the end. you are going to get a bounce. you need to have a bounce. something goes down from the highs and has that public appreciation you will get a bounce. the fact is you have done a lot of damage. the psychology has changed and karen's idea is correct. there is a difference between

apple the company and apple the stock. >> you have been quiet. >> where do you stand on apple? >> i have my samsung galaxy note. i'm tired of it. i know we are talking about sentiment. they have to pull out another trick out of the hat. for me the iphone not good enough. sentiment terrible. >> you would be a seller. >> i heard what you just said. i agree with it. i am looking for further sell side. >> just to button up, what would you do? buy here? >> the stock becomes very interesting around 540. this is a stock up 41% on the 12-month rolling basis. a lot of people with a lot of gains in the stock which is why i might be a little concerned. having said that this is a great place to buy a great company at a company that is not at an

overcrowded trade. >> just one more button up on it. when you saw the htc it is a total divergence from steve jobs. he wanted to fight tooth and nail to come out with a better product. seems like they are settling and coasting on iphone. i did buy google. i would rather be a buyer of googleal google. >> for more let's bring in steven, technical analyst. what do you see in the charts? seems like a few people are seeing. >> we are looking at the rising 200-day moving average and the

s&p 500 is moving. there is a difference between 1370 and 1340 and that is where we think the market can see the support. normal season ality about 1.5%. we are more worried next year. we think you can get a pullback in the first quarter of 2013 in conjunction of the presidential cycle. normally you are weak from the second half of the first year which is 2013 into 2014. we think we can get a rally and a better opportunity to get more profit. >> you are also specifically looking at mega caps as one reason why you are bullish. what are you looking at? >> we think mega caps this year emerged as leadership. we have the s&p 100.

we take a relative of that. you have a break out from a two-year base. mega caps have under performed. when you look what is going on this could be an oversold area where you can get back into mega caps stocks. >> is that a valuation thing or money will flow into that and be deployed? >> what is interesting about it is it is an area of the market unloved for quite some time. finally investors started recognizing it. you completed a nice two-year base pattern and broke out of it and pulled back. what we are thinking is it will hold some support and rally along with the equity market. that is a two-year base. we think it could be leadership. >> it is not just technology. >> it can fit almost every sector. pharmaceuticals. you have technology for growth. they are big bases. a lot of the companies were

unloved for about ten, 12, 14 years and broke out. >> the other side of what worked has been the commodities trade. data says we have june lows. where do you see the charts here because china is starting to recover. we have data over the weekend that tells you one exports might not be as bad as we think. china is the growth story. we can make a fundamental call but what do you see on the charts? >> we put out a chart today in our chart talk report highlighting a way of the commodities index. it's a secular bull market with a big cyclical correction from early 2011. we think we are completing that now. big levels on that chart around 550 or 500. we don't think we would go below

550 on that. >> last question, steve. since you brought along the technology your bullish technology that is a sector to lead us higher? we are having the long discussion about apple. is technology strong enough to go ahead without apple or is this making apple to rise? >> that is the biggest stock in the s&p 500 technology index. you have other big cap names that look well. the bottom line is we have a propritear model. deeply oversold. just got upgraded last week. if you take a look at the big picture chart on tech that is a 12-year base that broke out. we are pulling right back where technology broke out. so you have a big long trend line. was resistance should act as support. uptrend line from early 2009 we are right there. this could be an area where you could be looking. puts it on notice where if you

have fundamental view on tech take a look at some of the companies. may be a good level to buy. >> great to see you. thanks for coming by. coming up next on fast, is america on the verge of doing something once considered impossible, becoming energy independent. our traders separate fact from fiction. what is smart money doing right now? we are showing bets on a potential washington slow down. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little.

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welcome back to "fast money." with a market flash on facebook shares rallying on another ipo lockup expiration set for wednesday november 14 when the

lockup of another 804 million shares will expire. we saw the volume surging mid day after the stock was under pressure. the stock turning a quarter to end higher. likely those buying the dip ahead of the lockup. thank you very much. scott nations important to point out the first lockup delayed because of hurricane sandy. this smells of a little bit of short covering. i don't know how you interpreted the move here. >> i think that makes a lot of sense. 800 million shares is a bunch. put volume was big. it was two times the average. really impressive on a day where broad market volume was so low. puts got really expensive, almost 8% more expensive which is not something you expect on a monday when a stock is doing pretty well. >> startling report from the

international energy agency. >> it is a transformation that we are seeing in the oil industry. in fact, we are looking at the fact that the change we will see from the international energy agency we will have saudi arabia being overtaken by the u.s. as the top oil producer in the world by o2020. saudi arabia is the second largest oil exporter to the u.s. this change is going to happen because we have already started to see a change in the unconventional sources of gas and oil and the growth there is really what is helping to make what this agency is saying energy independence be able to become a reality for the u.s. by 2035. the other key thing to keep in mind it is natural gas leading the way in terms of the globalal gas production. it will make up half of gas production by 2035. a lot of thatoming from the u.s. what all of this means in terms

of the global energy trade is that we will see a shift in terms of the diversification and build up in supply. we will have a change in terms of where the middle east oil is going, as well. 90% of that is expected to go to asia by 2035. >> i'm curious what the temperature on the floor was on this report. do people buy this? >> a lot of traders say it is already priced in when you look all the way out to 2017 and 2020 we are seeing that priced in and the divergence that you are seeing between crude highlights the fact that there is a lot of focus in how much supply we have here in the u.s. this is just a confirmation of @ñat fact. >> it is so good to have you today because we are kicking off the new segment called fast or fiction where we take something like this report and see if you guys are buying it. >> i'm not buying it because tla far out in the future.

we will be energy independent far faster than the iea thinks it will happen. i think in north america no later than 2020 i think energy independent in the united states. >> having the ability to do it and doing it are different things. >> we are doing it. take a look at what is happening in north dakota. we know it on the desks. we are here on the street. the people in america don't realize what has happened. you have gone from 100,000 barrels to 6,000 barrels this year. north dakota it went past california. it is soon going to go past texas and they rp only getting started. i think they are only just beginning. i think the iea was way too long in the anticipation. >> traders are saying if we get there as quickly as you say that doesn't mean a good story for the u.s. consumer as we are seeing with what is happening with gas prices. until we see new refineries and

the infrastructure to go along with the drilling we can produce all the oil we want. >> that's the big question. we need to be an exporter of crude oil because we don't have the refining capabilities. we could be an exporter of crude and natural gas because we don't have the ability to refine the crude oil. >> are you saying to be energy independent we need a major shift in natural gas usage? >> it is liquids. in canada you have the deep water drilling in the gulf. it is all of north america. these guys said we are talking from somewhere around 11 million barrels a day by 2010 they will add another 15 million barrels a day by 2020. i think it happens much faster, too. this is absolutely fact. >> do you play it with a high

beta stock or do you play it with an ex on mobile? >> distribution. >> and it sounds like you are not going by nat gas use? >> i think nat gas will stay at probably under $4 as long as the futures market contains. all of that together should be wildly bullish. >> actually policy has no difference. we are down in terms of demand. >> is that part of the story as why we are energy dependent. it is also the fuel efficiency has helped. >> look at every automobile. the age is 10 1/2.

every time we retire an old car that gets 20 miles to the gallon we are replacing it with a car that gets 28. >> that '68 camaro. >> it got 12. that was an efficient car in 1966. >> you guys both said distribution immediately. >> pipe producers are your guys. >> i don't know what the pipe producers are. all i know is when i was in ohio to visit my mother i looked at what was going on in youngstown. it is running 24/7 producing pipe. >> sounds like you continue to sell coal. if nat gas is the same levels you continue to sell coal. chesapeake needed $5 nat gas. that maybe you don't ever get a bounce. >> if the futures markets continue to remain he may be

getting $4.50 and $5. >> thanks for coming by. we appreciate it. time for pops and drops and movers you might have missed. drop down 3%. >> the purchase something controversial for a company arguably close to bankruptcy. this is a big purchase for them. maybe they had no choice. >> a pop 13%. >> it was a pop for a lot of things in the bio tech space. i would mucht rather be in the ibb that way you can diversify your risk. >> i don't like to buy charts like this. i have to be frank with you because i would never lie to this camera you are going to see a sell side. i would rather watch this market and let things ride a little bit. i would be lightening up on stocks.

>> drop for wheat down 3%. >> you have better weather coming. you have wet weather coming that will make the winter wheat. you had huge announcements last week. big soybean crop which puts pressure. >> drop for d.r. horton. >> the ceo torpedoed the stock and worried about durability to sell new homes specifically mentioned weak employment growth. >> and we got a drop for mitt romney. poor mitt romney as if losing the presidential race wasn't bad enough now he is losing facebook likes. the declining number of likes on mitt romney's facebook page. one loyal romney fan, eric heartsford got a mitt romney logo tattooed on his face. he has no regrets. >> that's fantastic.

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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq market site. shares of jc penney falls to the lowest levels since march 2009. karen has been bearish on the name for some time. take a listen. >> i'm very pessimistic in the turn around. we need a lot more color here. i thought some of the presentation was a little hokey. he is great but i think selling an apple product is different than selling levis. >> they have plunged about 35% since that call. you continue to believe that ron

johnson's presentations are hokey and don't make sense. >> i feel like they are so salesmany. the part most interesting to me was when he asked the audience how do you value a company that is this great? let's value it like an a quality mall rete like simon properties. i think that is totally irrelevant to how you value jc penney. it shouldn't trade on a yield just to get started. i think addressing it that way seemed very desperate to me. the plan isn't working. they can hardly say this is how we expected it to play out. it was disappointing. i don't see how any bull come away but be disappointed. the risk reward has changed a lot since we were talking to them. we covered some. it doesn't mean i'm optimistic

about the story. it is a question of portfolio management. >> it reminds me of the republican party. it doesn't know who it is anymore and appealing to a group that is anybody 18 to 25 going to go into that company and buy anything, of course not. >> he just made that comparison because anthony is here. >> i am a good republican. october saw the most decline for hedge funds since may. what do we do post election? what do they look like right now? how are managers prepare frg the clip? joining us is anthony, magic partner at sky bridge capital. it's been a long time. >> dennis and i are combined 150 years old which is the problem with the republican party. >> in terms of positioning is

there a difference? >> i think we are noticing a lot of beta adjustments going on where more risk is being taken right now. a lot of guys are behind equities and looking to catch up. they have six weeks to go. we believe the consensus is the fiscal cliff situation will get resolved which sets up nicely for next year. and there might be a touch more better than expected economic growth next year. if so i think you will see more hedgefunds migrating into equities. we have 20 people that track this stuff and so i would say risk on. i don't know what you think. >> here is a quick question. you have the political side and the money side. cap gains dividends we talked about taxes going up. we know it is going up. 402 of the s&p 500 names pay a dividend.

isn't it simple math that you are going to see a further selling of these names if you know indeed that these taxes are going up? they are going up for a short term. >> i think there is like $2 trillion of cash in the s&p balance sheet so i think these guys will step in and start buying back stock. i think it will be offset. we have to accept that there will be some kind dividend and capital gains tax adjustment. i can only speculate what i think it will be. i don't think it is going to where ordinary income is. i think 28% is the range. a good ceo of those 402 companies will start to buy back stock with the cash available. i don't see that being a major factor. >> where are you seeing funds going in terms of flow to funds? is it high yield, equities, long, short? >> it looks like it is going in

a high yield on the margin. we are seeing some people start to think about europe and european destress particularly on the corporate debt side and that is why i think the equities are going to surprise people because flows are going fixed income directionally. all you need is incremental more demand on the equity side. >> hedgefunds are not seemingly back in the market here. they seem to be retreating. you are saying the last of the year we will see the rally. >> there is a chase for performance. >> a chase for beta driven alpha. >> fiscal cliff out of concern. >> i don't see the fiscal cliff as a major concern. one thing about our political system when both sides get painted into the corner they can pull the switches. since they are both able to do that they can cut a deal now.

hopefully that will bode well for the stock market into the beginning. >> good to see you. thanks for coming by. >> i got your aarp card. >> i got yours. i'm sorry. >> coming up next on fast what is the best fiscal cliff trade to date and will it keep working? retailers want to get an early jump but will the black thursday strategy back fire for share holders announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. ♪

. welcome back to "fast money." sales creeping to thursday as retailers move holiday bargains. sears kikz off special online deals next sunday. wal-mart and toys r us open doors at 8:00 p.m. on thanksgiving night. and target door busters begin at 9 p.m. macy's special midnight say is back for the second year. this all on the heels of big earnings week for big retailers. wal-mart and target among those

reporting next week. what does it mean for the momentum going into the holiday season? brian, always good to see you. >> good to see you, too. thanks for having us on. >> what should be interesting when it comes to retail reports this week and next week. this is the first real indication of what the sandy impact has been. what do you expect as biggest upside and down side. >> from a couple of fronts when you are looking at upside not that there is upside to anything that tragic but from a retail point of view they should do reasonably well particularly home depot that does a good job of adjusting strategies to meet the needs of these kinds of things. home depot you will see interesting dynamics probably in the fourth quarter numbers more

so than the third. lowe's is a week later. on the down side you have to be looking at retailers looking at exposure to the new york metropolitan area and second is retailers with discretionary spend that is not cheap. and that would worry us a tiny bit for macy's given what they are staring at. that seems like the type of retail business would be exposed. then you have a whole host of dynamic setbacks as you start to celebrate the holiday season. >> are you getting a good read in terms of momentum going into the holiday season given the hurricane sandy impact might cloud the data that you might otherwise be seeing? >> i think we feel like we are pretty good. a lot of trends are multi month. if we are lookingt at a couple

of success stories right now we have usual suspects. you have tjx, ross and jwn continue to post above average. their business models seem well engineered to shoppers and are not particularly geographically exposed. we are also reasonably bullish. your last commentator on jcp highlighted the flip side giving back almost an unprecedented level of volume. people are not going to stop wearing clothes because jc penney decided to stop selling them. you have kohl's or macy's that should benefit from the challenges that jc penney is having. we are pretty optimistic about that. >> is there anybody that is trending better than the others?

wal-mart and target seem to be technically on a bubble on the 100-day right now. it seems as though people are waiting. they push forward as we see black friday. they are playing christmas music as of november 1. is there a trend? do you see somebody who has something up their sleeve? i have seen negative on a lot of lower tier names and it seems to be cascading through safety bets wal-mart and target. >> wal-mart has positive shopper due to the repositioning of the value proposition across the board. wal-mart is predominantly a food company that sells nonfood. you are looking at what is going on from a traffic point of view in wal-mart which is 60% of what wal-mart sells is consumerable.

wal-mart has done a nice job of reenergizing their pricing messaging. i do think that as you look at the bottom end of the market, family dollars, dollar generals and dollar trees for shoppers feeling economic impact and shoppers that fear recession or for anybody that wants to buy stocking stuffers cheap we think that end of the market place could see a disproportionate benefit as shoppers look to trade down. we are more optestic. >> thanks for joining us. appreciate it. topic for holiday. >> still like macy's. coming up next "fast money" heads west to get you caught up on stories happening on the other coast. >> we have west coast companies with a british accent and some

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some of the biggest stories impacting your money on the west coast. we have a wrap up from los angeles. >> west coast giants accused of not paying their fair share of taxes the accounts committee wants starbucks, google and amazon to explain why they pay so little. google does the same through bermuda saying it is legal. starbucks hasn't paid income taxes in the uk in three years and has reported a loss for 13. you are either running the business badly or there is fiddle going on. >> ultimately we have all been -- i have been frustrated with the effect of tax rates of u.s. corporations for a long time and this has been a campaign issue for the incumbent.

isn't this good news for the usa if you see foreign deficits countries, france is going hard after google. there is a $1 billion allegation that brought them last month. isn't this a positive development when you have the rest of the world going against the companies where we want to see the profits back home? >> maybe. i know france is going after amazon for $250 million in a tax bill there. california is filing for amazon to start paying sales taxes in this state. it means more money for the tax man. up next don't short this bond. maybe they should call it wind fall. i'm sorry.

"sky fall" is the biggest bond opening. 15% went to imax in the biggest non summer opening ever. the stocks moved in opposite direction today. sony was down and i max up. >> you sounded just like adele by the way. >> didn't i? >> exactly. >> next, though. my favorite. a doozie. published reports confirm that john mcafee is being charged with murder in balize. >> this is called snake alley. >> our david favor visited mcafee. he is the prime suspect in the murder of an american builder. he went to south america after

riding to two booms and busts in california. here is what he said in 2009 after his first fortune. >> i have more money than a person could reasonably be expected to spend. >> i know someone in a helicopter with him earlier this year and said he was crazy and he had security and it was pretty wild. guys back to you. >> jane wells. thank you for that. could there be more rest ahead in europe? let's bring in west pack constitutional bank. you want to sell risk here. you want to sell your ausi and at what level snz. >> i'm looking to sell because we have negative headlines. positive data out of australia. i would like to enter a short position at 1.2185. target 1.20 the figure.

i am going to put a stock -- >> next on "fast money" what do you do when stocks soar? our traders will tell you when to hold them and when to fold them. more "fast money" straight ahead. i'm a conservative investor. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week.

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live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the goal is always to buy low and sell high. let's play a little hold them or fold them with two stocks nearing 52-week highs and lows. yahoo up more than 8%. very close to the highest level since may of 2011. so grasso, new ceo, turn around in place. what do you do? >> the stock has been trading basically between 14.35 and 16. if you want to start buying the stock once they break out to new highs tend to make higher highs. if you are going to buy the stock by 20% of whatever position you want to do and

reload on the way down if the market comes back in. i think it is a turn around story. >> and the same could be said of the next stock. avon down 21% close to its lowest level since 2009. a management shape up here, possible turn around story, exposure to emerging markets. do you like the stock? >> no. i think the turn around story hasn't worked yet. it is unclear whether it will. it could, i don't know. it's the stock is not cheap here. it is lower but it is not the same as cheap. a lot of people held on some hope of some sort of buy out here. i don't see it happening. wouldn't be a buying. >> in brazil we follow this name because we like a couple of competitors. they announced numbers in avon last week. stay away from avon. >> caterpillar is another stock that struggled. what are you seeing in the pits?

how are options traders playing this stock? >> share holders are starting to throw in the towel on caterpillar. instead of selling the stock we saw somebody start selling calls today. they sold 3,500 of the $95 calls. they received $1.40 for selling those. that means the break even is 96.40. they expect the stock to be below that level. $96.40 is an important level. it is higher than the stock has been since it got below $100 this summer. i understand why somebody is willing to plant a flag in the ground and say cat is not getting higher. p. >> the major reasons behind the downgrade is weakness in coal. the mining division over at caterpillar could be under pressure. that is j.p. morgan's reasoning. if we are to believe in the

argument and you should be bearish coal and maybe this would be a bad thing for the likes of a caterpillar. >> i have a hard time being bearish of coal at the prices. you brought coal prices down to an egregious level. china is a question of coal. i think coal is probably cheap. more options action every friday. got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account.

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time for the final trade. >> i am with with grasso on yahoo. the great ceo. >> spread trade long eem short spy. >> i want to short yen and buy the ausi. >> if you are short jcp you have to buy some back. >> i am long google. watch the 655 level. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. back here again at 5:00 for more "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer begins right now.